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Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, OIH, XLF, XLE, XRT     

This past week was all about passing a deal to avoid the "fiscal cliff".  In last week's Market Forecast, I said:

"For the new week, this market is still waiting to see if a deal can be made to avoid the "fiscal cliff".  While there are many analysts that think the markets may sell on the news even if a deal is reached, I think this market will rally if we do get a deal to avoid the "fiscal cliff".  But, we'll still have to see if a deal will be made first.  SPX 1420 becomes the first resistance once again.  If no deal is made, however, things could fall fast.  The initial support stands between 1380 and 1390."

On Monday, the market pushed higher in the afternoon and closed just above SPX 1420, as Senate seemed to be getting together to ink out a bill.  On Monday night, Senate passed that bill.  Tuesday was New Year's Day and the market was closed.  On Tuesday night, House also passed the bill without any alterations.  The market gapped up on Wednesday and never looked back.  On Thursday, the market took a pause.  On Friday, jobs report was encouraging and the market ended slightly up.

For the week, the Dow was up +497.1 points; SPX added +64.04 points; Nasdaq gained +141.35 points.  Gold was basically flat and oil crawled slightly higher.  We had a pretty nice week with most closed trades in the positive.  We traded AAPL on both sides and came out with nice profits on both trades.  GOOG was gave us a nice overnight winner:

  • 11:46 | HappyTrading GOOG ($739.20) Sold to Close 01C730 Jan 730 calls, at $15.30 +47%
  • 07:37 | Ecstatic Plays CF ($209.20) Sold to Close 0111P205 Jan 205 put, at $1.15 -58%
  • 06:56 | HappyTrading AAPL ($535.40) Sold to Close 0111P545 Jan 545 put, at $14.50 +38%
  • 12:49 | HappyTrading AAPL ($541.80) Sold to Close 0111P545 Jan 545 put, at $11.10 +6%
  • 07:01 | HappyTrading CRUS ($30.40) Sold to Close 01C28 Jan 28 calls, at $2.90 +53%
  • 12:18 | Ecstatic Plays AAPL ($533.60) Sold to Close 0104C515 Jan 515 calls, at $21.10 +107%
  • 07:05 | Ecstatic Plays AAPL ($525.00) Sold to Close 0104C515 Jan 515 calls, at $15.00 +47%

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At the time of this writing, Asian markets were slightly lower after last week's rally.  Here's where the US markets stood after Friday's close:


On Friday, SPX added +7.1 points to close at 1466.47.  The daily MAs and MACD went higher.


Nasdaq gained +109 points to close at 3101.66.  The daily MAs and MACD were also higher.

Both SPX and Nasdaq have caught their respective upper BB.  VIX took big drop, down to just below 14.  For the new week, earnings are going to start.  Things may be on the slow side until Wednesday, after AA has reported.  INFY and WFC report on Friday morning.  If things pullback, the nearest support is between SPX 1450 to 1460.  If the markets push higher, initial resistance is between SPX 1475 and 1480.  Energy stocks have reversed its weakness and are looking better.  Oil services stocks also popped last week.

Sector Watch

OIH (oil services)

OIH has caught its daily upper BB, and its daily MAs are moving back into a bullish formation.  RIG had a big pop last week after settling a law suit on the Gulf spill at $1.4 billion.  DO and SLB also had a nice week.

XLF (financials)

XLF finally cleared the resistance at $16.4-$16.6.  MA and V are at all-time highs.  JPM and GS pushed higher on Friday.

XLE (energy)

XLE also caught up with its daily upper BB.  Energy stocks may finally be catching some serious buyers.  APA has turned bullish.  OXY and APC are breaking higher.  IOC is starting to look better.

XRT (retails)

XRT bounced higher but still looks range-bound.  RL and ROST had huge jumps on Thursday.  TIF and LQDT may have turned the corner from their recent weakness.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

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