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Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, XLE, XLF, FDN, IGV     

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! 

2012 is quickly coming to an end.  One week left in trading.  The market is still waiting for a budget deal to be made.  Things seemed to be moving along with compromises made on both sides.  But, by the end of the week, no deal was agreed upon.

Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I wrote:
"For the new week, we could finally see buyers come into the markets and show some conviction to stay in!  Tonight, news came out to suggest that Boehner had finally agreed to the premise of higher tax rates for the top 2% earners.  This could propel the discuss on a budget deal to a faster track.  We may just see agreements start to come in as now the two sides can talk more openly about the details.  If this is the case, I think the market is ready to break out.  We'll be watching the 1430 to 1440 area."

Indeed, stocks rallied on Monday and Tuesday.  By Tuesday noon, SPX was above 1440.  We locked in most of our profits by Wednesday morning.  By Wednesday afternoon, we started to see some profit-taking.  Buyers came in again after a weak morning on Thursday.  But, Friday saw a pullback as GOP failed to get an agreement among its own members.  SPX ended just above 1430 for the week.

We had a very nice week with some nice gains:

  • 12:39 | Ecstatic Plays PCLN ($617.70) Sold to Close 1228P615 Dec 615 put, at $8.20 -25%
  • 06:57 | Ecstatic Plays QIHU ($26.55) Sold to Close 12C25 Dec 25 calls, at $1.60 +45%
  • 06:55 | HappyTrading NTAP ($34.50) Sold to Close 12C32 Dec 32 calls, at $2.55 +130%
  • 06:42 | HappyTrading VMW ($98.30) Sold to Close 12C90 Dec 90 calls, at $8.20 +110%
  • 06:39 | Ecstatic Plays GLD ($161.70) Sold to Close 12P165 Dec 165 put, at $3.40 +102%
  • 09:19 | HappyTrading FIO ($24.50) Sold to Close 12C23 Dec 23 calls, at $1.60 +52%
  • 09:17 | HappyTrading FFIV ($97.00) Sold to Close 12C95 Dec 95 calls, at $2.64 +20%
  • 08:02 | HappyTrading FIO ($24.30) Sold to Close 12C23 Dec 23 calls, at $1.40 +33%

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For the week, the Dow was up +55.83 points; SPX added +16.57 points; Nasdaq gained +49.68 points.  Gold suffered a sharp fall, closing below $1660/ounce.  Oil rose slightly to just above $88/barrel.  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were slightly up.  Here's where the US markets closed on Friday:


On Friday, SPX slid 13.54 points to close at 1430.15.  The daily MAs and MACD were little changed.


Nasdaq fell 29.38 points to close at 3021.01.  Its 10-day MA and MACD flattened.

Both SPX and Nasdaq basically closed at their respective 10-day MAs.  VIX, however, had a big jump, almost touching 20 on Friday morning.  For the new week, the market will start with a neutral stance.  If the downward momentum continues, as we'll probably not hear from Washington until Wednesday, the nearest support for SPX is 1420.  This market is likely range-bound until we hear from Washington.  SPX 1440 is still the level to break.  Until something substantial happens on the budget deal, we could have a stock-picking environment.  After last week, most sectors are now slightly bullish.

XLE (energy)

XLE was on its way to a breakout.  But, Friday's quick pullback dragged it back below the breakout level again.  OXY, APA, and HES are looking strong.  APC is setting up for a breakout.

XLF (financials)

XLF had a breakout last week.  Among the big banks, GS, C, and BAC broke higher.  Both MA and V hung on strongly and I think we could see new heights from these two if the broader market pushes higher.

FDN (internet)

FDN remained strong.  CRM, EQIX, GOOG, and AMZN are all staying strong.  PCLN saw a pullback with the broader market on Friday.

IGV (software)

IGV is very strong, especially after some recent good earnings.  RHT, ADBE, and ORCL all reported well.  CTSH and CTXS could be interesting.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

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