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Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, MOO, XLF, XLE, GLD     

Wow, 2012 has quickly gone by.  December is here!  Let's make this one account!  The market is still in a waiting mode, though, waiting for Congress to get its act together and pass a bi-partisan budget deal to avoid the "fiscal cliff".  After a week of bounce from the recent bottom, stocks made small advances to end the month of November (click to see Monthly Wrap-Up and FREE New Service).

Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I wrote:
"For the new week, it seems like the Black Friday and Cyber Monday could at least prop the retailers higher to start the week.  Greek deal could also affect the market mood.  There is also a slew of other economic data coming out, including durable good, consumer confidence, new home sale, and GDP on Thursday, with PMI to wrap up the week on Friday.  On the upside, SPX has resistance between 1420 and 1430, while for Nasdaq, the resistance stands between 3000 and 3050.  On the downside, we'll look for 1380 as support for SPX and 2900 for Nasdaq."

Well, things happened as forecasted.  Basically the word was "indecision".  Monday and Tuesday saw tight-ranged trading, as the market hung on to every word from Congress regarding the "fiscal cliff".  SPX took a quick fall down to 1385 before a sharp bounce on positive words from CongressWe logged in gains from FB and GOOG trades.  Then, the market went back to waiting mode on Thursday and Friday.

For the week, the Dow was up +15.9 points; SPX added +7.03 points; Nasdaq gained +43.39 points.  Pretty good week for techs!  Oil was basically flat, still around $89/barrel.  Gold took a pullback, but stayed above $1710/ounce.  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mixed, with China still weak.  Here's where the US markets stood after Friday's close:

SPX

On Friday, SPX added +0.23 point to close at 1416.18.  The 10-day MA went higher and the MACD glided up.

Nasdaq


Nasdaq slid 1.79 points to close at 3010.24, above 3000.  Its MACD and 10-day MA went up.

Well, both SPX and Nasdaq managed to close the week above their respective daily MAs.  VIX, on the other hand, sank be 16.  For the new week, it's pretty much still all about the "fiscal cliff".  Buyers are ready to come in, but, they are cautious not to jump the gun.  One solid pop, though, this market could go on a run!  We'll need to see Congress to stop the political circus and come together to do what they were elected and paid to do!  If Congress does come up with a budget deal, or at least some substantial progress, SPX could test 1440.  1400 now is the immediate support for SPX.  If the market still trades sideways, we could see a stock-picking environment.  We'll be watching the financials and energies.  Gold could be interesting after last week's quick "shakeout"!

Sector Watch

MOO (agriculture)

MOO has had a strong bounce since the recent bottom.  CF and MON have turned bullish.  POT is still weak, but, MOS may be ready for a pop.

XLF (financials)

XLF closed right at its 30-day MA.  MA and V made new all-time highs last week.  GS is still somewhat weak.  C was really weak.  WFC and BAC look a little stronger.  AIG is right at resistance.

XLE (energy)

XLE also closed at its 30-day MA.  OXY, APA, NOV are all still weak.  But, APC is starting to look interesting.  Oil services are acting a little stronger.

GLD (gold)

GLD took a sharp drop last Wednesday.  But, this drop now looks like a shakeout!  We'll keep a close watch on GLD. 

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

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