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Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: GLD, XLF, XME, MOO     

It was a very volatile week with a big fall on Tuesday.  Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I wrote:

"For the new week, more earnings will come in, but, this week, the market will start from a more bearish stance... Last week's early gains offset Friday's sharp fall.  SPX's first support is still at 1400."

Earnings from big bellwethers such as AMZN and AAPL turned out to be "non-events" that only added to more intraday volatility.  Monday was a flat day.  Tuesday was a sharp drop.  Then, for the rest of the week, the market traded in a very tight range and really didn't go anywhere.  SPX did come down to as low as 1403.28 on Friday before getting a small bounce.

We didn't trade much and had a mixed week:

  • October 26, 2012
  • 12:31 | Ecstatic Plays FAS ($108.00) Sold to Close 1102P107 Nov 107 put, at $2.30 -28%
  • 11:35 | HappyTrading MNST ($45.60) Sold to Close 11P45 Nov 45 put, at $3.00 -3%
  • 11:34 | HappyTrading SPG ($151.00) Sold to Close 11P150 Nov 150 put, at $2.46 -14%
  • 07:27 | Ecstatic Plays AMZN ($230.00) Sold to Close 1102C230 Nov 230 put, at $4.60 -31%
  • 06:35 | Ecstatic Plays PCLN ($583.25) Sold to Close 1102P550 Nov 550 put, at $2.10 -76%
  • 10:48 | HappyTrading CERN ($68.06) Sold to Close 11P70 Nov 70 put, at $4.30 +62%
  • 07:32 | HappyTrading CRUS ($40.10) Sold to Close 11C40 Nov 40 calls, at $3.00 +11%
  • 08:51 | Ecstatic Plays CF ($201.20) Sold to Close 1026P205 Oct 205 put, at $5.05 +44%
  • 08:50 | Ecstatic Plays GLD ($165.60) Sold to Close 1006P167 Oct 167 put, at $1.87 +17%
  • 08:36 | Ecstatic Plays CF ($201.40) Sold to Close 1026P205 Oct 205 put, at $5.05 +44%
  • 07:24 | Ecstatic Plays GLD ($165.50) Sold to Close 1026P167 Oct 167 put, at $1.90 +19%
  • 12:20 | HappyTrading CERN ($69.10) Sold to Close 11P70 Nov 70 put, at $3.30 +25%
  • 12:19 | HappyTrading MON ($88.00) Sold to Close 11P87.5 Nov 88 calls, at $1.60 +5%
  • 11:09 | Ecstatic Plays LULU ($67.50) Sold to Close 1026P72.5 Oct 73 put, at $4.95 +112%

For the week, the Dow was down 236.3 points; SPX lost 21.97 points; Nasdaq slid 17.67 points.  Oil took a big fall, down to $86/barrel; gold clipped to just above $1710/ounce.  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly lower.  Let's see where the US markets stood after Friday's close:

SPX

On Friday, SPX slipped 1.03 points to close at 1411.94.  Its daily MAs and MACD went lower.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq added +1.83 points to close at 2987.95.  Its daily MAs and MACD also slipped.

Both SPX and Nasdaq hover just above important support levels:  SPX 1400 and Nasdaq 2950.  For the new week, earnings will continue to come in, but, the broader market may be range-bound.  Even if the market makes a bounce, upside could be limited.  First resistance should be between SPX 1420 and 1430.  Nasdaq's 3050 could now be a resistance.  Here are some notable earnings:

MON:  APC, BIDU, CRUS, HLF, AUY, VRTX (PM)
TUE:  ACOR, AGN, CMI, GNC, YNDX (AM); EQIX, JDSU, PSMT, STX, SFLY, VRTS (PM)
WED:  GRMN, MA (AM); AFFX, ALL, BMC, CCJ, ELLI, FSLR, MELI, MET, TSO, V (PM)
THUR:  AMAG, APA, CI, XOM, RGLD, TEVA, VMC (AM) AIG, BEBE, NILE, NEM, PCLN, SWKS, SBUX, SWN, VCLK, YELP (PM)
FRI:  ANR, SSYS (AM); CVX (PM)

Gold has become bearish.  Financials fell last week and are in danger to turn bearish.  Agricultures are holding up well, but, also are starting to show weaknesses.

Sector

GLD (gold)

GLD fell below $168 and the daily MAs are in a bearish formation.  If GLD bounces, $168 is the first resistance.  AUY and RGLD are reporting this week.

XLF (financials)

XLF closed below its daily MAs last week.  $15.6 is the first support.  GS and WFC are holding up.  MA and V will report this week.  MA broke down last week, while V held up.

XME (metals and mining)

XME barely hung on at its daily MAs last week.  Coals have pulled back a bit with mixed earnings:  BTU and ACI reported well, but, CLF did not.  FCX turned lower after its earnings report.

MOO (agriculture)

MOO fell below its daily MAs last week and is looking vulnerable.  POT slid after its earnings on Thursday.  AGU is still haning on.  CF has slid and MOS is already bearish.

This market is looking shaky and could remain range-bound until after the election, unless something big that pushes the needle to one direction.  This week's jobs report could be very important.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

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