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Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, USO, XLF, XLE, XME     

Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I wrote:

"For the new week, it seems that buyers are just not willing to keep buying without seeing some meaningful profit-taking.  I think we are going to see a quick pullback.  The first support is between 1350 and 1360 on the SPX.  Nasdaq could come down to test 2950."

Indeed, the market took a quick pullback.  Not only was it quick, it was sharp!  By Tuesday afternoon, SPX had fallen to 1340 (from 1370) and Nasaq dropped all the way to 2900!  On Tuesday evening, in my article, I said, "The market has fallen fast in the past couple of days.  It may not have much more to fall.  SPX 1340 has pretty strong support.  The 2900 level for Nasdaq has strong support as well."  On Wednesday, the market bounced!  Then, on Thursday, the market bounced more.  On Friday, things climbed a little bit and managed to close the week higher.

We wrapped up a very strong week, trading on both sides and catching profits on both sides.  We captured quick doubles at the beginning of the week with downside trades on NFLX and CF.  Then, as the market bounced, we booked more gains with upside trades on AMZN and SINA.

For the week, the Dow was down 55.55 points; SPX managed to add +1.24 points; Nasdaq gained +12.15 points.  Both gold and oil were basically flat.  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were slightly lower, although Japan's Nikkei was slightly up.  Here's how the US market closed on Friday:

SPX

On Friday, SPX added +4.96 points to close at 1370.87.  The daily MAs and MACD were up slightly.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq gained +17.92 points to close at 2988.34.  The daily MAs were slightly higher and the MACD stayed flat.

The market took a quick drop, which did allow some profits to be locked in.  However, it seemed dip-buyers were eager to jump in (as mentioned last Tuesday), which drove the market back up.  For the new week, the market stands at an important point.  If the market breaks above and away from 1370, we could see a new leg up.  However, there's still weakness in mining and energy sectors.  We could see a slow start to begin the week.  Then, things could get interesting.  If the market breaks out, the financials, ironically, are in a good position to add more gains.

Sector Watch

USO (oil)

USO took a quick drop on Tuesday, but, popped right back up.  It did manage to close above its daily MAs.  Higher oil prices may pressure the markets.  We'll have to keep an eye on it. 

XLF (financials)

XLF touched its daily upper BB on Friday.  A little further upward push, XLF could break out.  Its daily MAs are pinched, which could be a potential bigger move.  If XLF does break out, JPM and WFC look very strong.  GS will probably not get left behind.  MA looks ready to break higher as well.  ICE is shaping up as well.

XME (metals and mining)

XME is very weak and is deep in a bearish formation.  Coals have been slipping.  WLT and CLF finally got a bounce on Friday.  X also saw a bounce.  FCX, on the other hand, dropped further.

XLE (energy)

XLE barely closed above its 30-day MA.  If XLE bounces, I'd look at APA and OXY.  RIG also looks strong.

While the above sectors are important to keep an eye on, Nasdaq could be even more crucial, as it is at a level not seen since 2001.  That's 11 years!  Software has been leading the charge.  QSFT popped +24% on Friday in a $2 billion deal buyout offer.  We could see more M&A activities in this sector this year!

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

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