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Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, SLV, XME, XLE, SOXX     

Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I discussed,

"For the new week, the broader market may take a slow start.  However, Nasdaq may get a push from the software sector.  If SPX manages to break above 1370, it may kick in a new gear.  On the other hand, Nasdaq has a lot of room to go higher."

We indeed did get a slow start.  On Monday, the market dipped lower at the open, but, managed to rally back up before the close.  On Tuesday, the Dow closed above 13,000 and SPX closed above 1370.  On Wednesday, Nasdaq went up to test 3000 in the morning, but, the market quickly reversed directions and closed lower for the day.  On Thursday and Friday, the market struggled to find a direction and traded in a narrow range.  By the close on Friday, SPX was not able to stay above 1370.

Even though the market basically didn't go anywhere, we had a really nice week, scoring big wins with 100% of the closed trades in the GR$$N, including a +207% gain on VVUS and an +81% intraday profit on GS.

For the week, the Dow was down 5.38 points; SPX added +3.89 points; Nasdaq gained +12.44 points.  Gold and oil went lower.  Gold lost about $80 for the week.  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were down.  Here's how the US market closed on Friday:


On Friday, SPX fell 4.46 points to close at 1369.63.  The daily MAs were little changed. MACD slipped.


Nasdaq fell 12.78 points to close at 2976.19.  The 10-day MA flattened and the MACD was lower.

The market tried hard to break higher, but, couldn't.  SPX struggled a whole week against 1370 and still closed just under.  For the new week, it seems that buyers are just not willing to keep buying without seeing some meaningful profit-taking.  I think we are going to see a quick pullback.  The first support is between 1350 and 1360 on the SPX.  Nasdaq could come down to test 2950.  Mining stocks are really weak.  Semiconductors are under pressure as well.

Sector watch

SLV (silver)

SLV took a sharp fall on Wednesday when gold (GLD) fell.  SLV has support at $33.  If it goes to $32, it should be another buying opportunity.  GLD looks weaker than SLV.  GLD has support between $165 to $162.5.

XME (metals and mining)

XME is turning bearish!!  A new bearish formation has just developed.  Coals have been really weak.  In metals, gold and silver miners have some support due to the recent sharp rise.  But, X, FCX, ATI are looking to take a quick drop.

XLE (energy)

XLE closed below the 10-day MA.  APA and EOG have taken a quick turn to the down side.  SLB and NOV also look weak after last week's fall.

SOXX (semiconductors)

SOXX is looking a bit shaky; it closed below its daily MAs last week.  ALTR has been really weak.  BRCM took a sizable fall on Friday.  Depending on how much the market pulls back, SOXX could test 410.  Below 410, it would not be good for the overall market.

What's going on here, in my opinion, is that this market is cashing out on commodity sectors every time we get a pullback.  If and when the market resumes it's rally, money is being moved into techs.  This could be a very interesting week.  Let's see how things play out.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

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