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Weekly Wrap-Up + Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, GLD, XME, MOO, SOXX     

Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, we discussed,

"For the new week, the market should push higher to test SPX 1350, which is not really far away.  Europe is still fighting to get a deal done prevent Greece from going into default.  I think regardless of how things go for Greece, even if a deal is not made, a quick pullback for the global markets will be healthy at this point.  If the market does get a quick pullback, dip-buyers will likely jump in a provide the markets with support.  Next resistance for SPX is 1360."

Indeed, things happened as forecasted once again.  Monday and Tuesday say morning weakness.  But, every time the market pulled back, dip-buyers pushed it up again.  All week, Greece could not reach a deal to secure the funding needed to prevent a default.  On Tuesday, we took profits on CSTR with a +241% gain and FFIV with a +106% profit.  On Wednesday, the market climbed higher to test SPX 1350.  On Thursday, SPX went above 1354, but, did not get up to 1360.  AAPL climbed to new heights, closing in on the $500 mark.  On Friday, the market took a quick drop, but, still closed above 1340.

We had another week.  Here are the closed trades:

  • 12:52 | Ecstatic Plays GS ($113.80) Sold to Close 02P115 Feb 115 put, at $1.81 +34%
  • 10:15 | HappyTrading BIDU ($136.85) Sold to Close 02C135 Feb 135 calls, at $6.60 +18%
  • 07:09 | HappyTrading CROX ($20.00) Sold to Close 02C18 Feb 18 calls, at $2.05 +11%
  • 07:03 | Ecstatic Plays FSLR ($44.80) Sold to Close 02C50 Feb 50 calls, at $0.55 -66%
  • 07:01 | HappyTrading SLV ($32.40) Sold to Close 02C33 Feb 33 calls, at $0.37 -63%
  • 06:54 | Ecstatic Plays GOOG ($606.80) Sold to Close 02C620 Feb 620 calls, at $2.10 -40%
  • 11:19 | HappyTrading NFLX ($124.90) Sold to Close 0210P125 Feb 125 put, at $2.65 +13%
  • 08:43 | HappyTrading SLV ($33.00) Sold to Close 02C33 Feb 33 calls, at $0.73 -27%
  • 08:40 | HappyTrading NFLX ($123.80) Sold to Close 0210P125 Feb 125 put, at $3.40 +45%
  • 08:23 | HappyTrading CELG ($72.10) Sold to Close 02C72.5 Feb 73 calls, at $0.85 -73%
  • 12:17 | Ecstatic Plays NFLX ($128.00) Sold to Close 0210P125 Feb 125 put, at $1.80 -3%
  • 07:42 | HappyTrading FFIV ($127.27) Sold to Close 0210C125 Feb 125 calls, at $3.20 +106%
  • 07:37 | HappyTrading DNDN ($16.25) Sold to Close 02C15 Feb 15 calls, at $1.80 +6%
  • 07:21 | HappyTrading VRTX ($37.50) Sold to Close 02C37 Feb 37 calls, at $1.45 -24%
  • 06:48 | Ecstatic Plays CSTR ($58.90) Sold to Close 02C52.5 Feb 53 calls, at $6.50 +217%
  • 06:45 | Ecstatic Plays CSTR ($59.30) Sold to Close 02C52.5 Feb 53 calls, at $7.00 +241%

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For the week, the Dow was down 61 points; SPX slipped 2.26 points; Nasdaq fell 1.78 points.  Both oil and gold were little changed.  Tonight, at the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly higher, as Greece passed the austerity bill to prevent a default on its debt.  Let's take a look at where the US market closed on Friday:

SPX

On Friday, SPX fell 9.31 points to close at 1342.64.  The daily MAs were little changed, but, the MACD slipped.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq fell 23.35 points to close at 2903.68.  Its daily MAs were up and the MACD stayed flat.

Both SPX and Nasdaq did a quick pullback on Friday.  VIX closed above 20 for the week.  But, after a whole month of rallying, a little pullback only seems healthy.  For the new week, it does not look like the market will fall too much further.  SPX 1330 could now be the support.  Nasdaq stayed above 2900 and 2860 has support.  To get a next leg up, SPX will need to break 1360.  However, tech stocks may not need to wait for the broader market.  We could see Nasdaq continue to push higher while SPX fights with 1360 for a little longer.  XME fell fast last week and is starting to look a little weak.  Agriculture stock also pulled back quite a bit.

Sector Watch

GLD (gold)

GLD closed a bit lower last week.  It looks range-bound right now.  $170 is still the resistance to break.

XME (metals and mining)

XME fell all the way to just below its 30-day MA.  CLF is reporting Wednesday after the market close.  BTU, ANR, and PCX are all looking a bit weak.

MOO (agriculture)

MOO fell below its 10-day MA.  CF is reporting Wednesday after the market close.  CF and AGU are still looking healthy.  But, POT and MOS are on the verge of turning bearish.

SOXX (semiconductors)

SOXX fell back to 420, right at its 10-day MA.  We'll watch SOXX carefully.  If SOXX breaks down, it won't be good for the broader market.

The coming week may be a volatile week, as profit-takers continue to fight with the dip-buyers.  If you have been planning a vacation, this coming week may be a good week to take it.  We will likely see a "stock-picking" market environment as the market struggles to find a direction.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™

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  • GMCR/10C130
  • Sold to Close
  • at $7.60 by Happy Trading
  • NUE/10C55
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  • at $3.71 by Ecstatic Plays
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  • at $1.45 by Happy Trading
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  • at $5.30 by Ecstatic Plays
  • SINA/10C47.5
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  • at $4.85 by Happy Trading
  • RGLD/09P75
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  • at $3.90 by Happy Trading
  • GILD/09P103
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  • at $4.00 by Ecstatic Plays
  • AMZN/09C340
  • Sold to Close
  • at $12.50 by Ecstatic Plays
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