Last week, the market pretty much held its breath waiting for the EU leaders to come up with measures to prevent their financial crisis from deteriorating. In my Market Forecast last weekend, I said,
"For the new week, the market will start from a neutral position. SPX
did manage to close above 1240 last week. The immediate resistance is
between 1260 and 1280. It'll be interesting if the market does get to
test 1280 again, which it was not able to break through in October.
Financials will once again be key."
Without knowing what would come out of the EU summit. The forecast pretty much captured what was happening. The market traded in a tight range and stood in neutral gear. From Monday through Wednesday, the market was slightly up, but, really didn't go anywhere. We locked in profits along the way, including +104% on SNDK and +145% on IBM; plus, a quick intraday +86% on NFLX. The market took a quick fall on Thursday as the EU leaders still did not reach an agreement. On Thursday night, however, an agreement was reached with 23, including all 17 eurozone states, of the 27 European countries. The market bounced back on Friday and ended the week slightly up.
Here are our closed trades last week:
- 07:21 | HappyTrading WLT ($66.80) Sold to Close 12P65 Dec 65 calls, at $1.61 -11%
- 09:14 | HappyTrading WLT ($66.10) Sold to Close 12P65 Dec 65 put, at $2.05 +14%
- 12:43 | HappyTrading CMI ($95.00) Sold to Close 12P95 Dec 95 put, at $2.65 -17%
- 07:31 | HappyTrading QCOM ($53.87) Sold to Close 12C55 Dec 55 calls, at $0.59 -44%
- 07:25 | HappyTrading MON ($70.95) Sold to Close 12C72.5 Dec 73 calls, at $0.88 -41%
- 07:28 | HappyTrading SNDK ($52.05) Sold to Close 12C48 Dec 48 calls, at $4.55 +104%
- 07:03 | HappyTrading IBM ($192.90) Sold to Close 12C190 Dec 190 calls, at $4.65 +145%
For the week, the Dow was up +164.84 points; SPX added +10.91 points; Nasdaq gained +19.92 points. Both gold and oil went slightly lower. At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly higher. Let's see how the US market closed on Friday:
SPX
SPX added +20.84 points to close at 1255.19. Its 10-day MA and MACD went up.
Nasdaq
Nasdaq gained +50.47 points to close at 2646.85. Its 10-day MA and MACD also climbed higher.
Although the market did closed slightly up for the week. It is still in the middle of a wide range. For the new week, we'll have to see if this market can continue its rally that started 2 weeks ago. One bullish sign is that for SPX and DJI, the 10-day MA has risen above the 30-day MA, and the MACDs are still bullish. The market really needs to see a bigger jump. SPX needs to break above 1280 to get the shorts to cover. Financials are once again the key. While they may not lead the market up, but, at least, we'll need to see them going higher in order for the market to rally. Energy stocks and fertilizers seem weak, which we'll take a closer look in Sector Watch.
Sector Watch
HGX (housing)
One thing that caught my attention this weekend is that the housing sector has been particularly strong. This could actually be a good sign for the economy. HGX has been climbing since October. Its daily MAs have just established a new bullish formation. It'll need to punch through 102 to break out. SPG, TOL, LEN, and even VMC, have been strong.
XLF (financials)
XLF fell below $13 on Thursday, but, closed above $13 on Friday. However, its daily MAs are still neutral. MA and V continue to be strong and could break out higher this week. GS is catching my attention more and more. It does seem like there are big buyers chasing after GS. JPM and WFC are shaping up as well.
MOO (agriculture)
MOO has been one of the weakest. It closed the week below its daily MAs. CF, POT, MOS, AGU, and MON have all been on the weak side.
XLE (energy)
XLE managed to close above its daily MAs. EOG keeps threatening to break out, so, keep an eye on this one. IOC is a volatile stock, and, when it moves, it can easily run $10 in a week. I don't, however, particularly like the oil services names. RIG, DO, and SLB seem to be going nowhere. NOV is a little better.
Good night and HappyTrading! ™
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