It was another wild week on the market. We carefully rode the tides that rose and fall, and made some very good trades, including an intraday +126% gain on GMCR calls and an overnight +103% profit on WYNN puts. Here are the closed trades for the week:
- 09:47 | HappyTrading FAS ($58.80) Sold to Close 11060 Nov 60 put, at $2.63 +35%
- 09:46 | HappyTrading WYNN ($119.30) Sold to Close 11P125 Nov 125 put, at $5.70 +103%
- 09:38 | HappyTrading GS ($96.80) Sold to Close 11P100 Nov 100 put, at $3.65 +14%
- 07:54 | HappyTrading GS ($98.10) Sold to Close 11P100 Nov 100 put, at $2.74 -9%
- 07:46 | HappyTrading JOYG ($89.50) Sold to Close 11C87.5 Nov 88 calls, at $3.00 -30%
- 06:44 | HappyTrading AAPL ($390.50) Sold to Close 11C390 Nov 390 calls, at $3.90 +39%
- 12:08 | HappyTrading FFIV ($113.55) Sold to Close 11C110 Nov 110 calls, at $4.25 +63%
- 12:02 | HappyTrading GMCR ($47.50) Sold to Close 11C45 Nov 45 calls, at $3.25 +126%
- 11:13 | HappyTrading GMCR ($46.75) Sold to Close 11C45 Nov 45 calls, at $2.65 +84%
- 06:56 | HappyTrading GMCR ($44.00) Sold to Close 11P40 Nov 40 put, at $0.37 -70%
- 06:54 | HappyTrading AAPL ($383.00) Sold to Close 110375 Nov 375 calls, at $1.66 -57%
- 09:19 | HappyTrading SLV ($33.32) Sold to Close 11C33 Nov 33 calls, at $0.82 -49%
- 09:15 | HappyTrading GLD ($173.20) Sold to Close 11C172 Nov 172 calls, at $2.56 +0%
- 09:03 | HappyTrading FFIV ($111.50) Sold to Close 11C110 Nov 110 calls, at $3.30 +27%
- 09:00 | HappyTrading AMZN ($221.30) Sold to Close 11C220 Nov 220 calls, at $4.70 +18%
- 07:31 | HappyTrading AMZN ($220.50) Sold to Close 11C220 Nov 220 calls, at $4.30 +2%
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In my Market Forecast last weekend, I wrote:
"For the new week, the market appears to be in a neutral stance. To
break out, SPX will have to push for 1300 while Nasdaq will need to top
2750. On the downside SPX first support seems to be between 1225 and
1230. Nasdaq's support is at 2600."
On Monday and Tuesday, the market was basically treading water, going nowhere, but, we did pick up a good trade on GMCR as it bounced and squeezed the shorts. Wednesday afternoon, during the last hour of trading, saw the market sold off quickly. But, we had already closed out all of our longside trades and were ready to pick on new trades on the downside. On Thursday, the market dropped even more, and our downside trades paid off handsomely. We even scored a +164% trade in a little more than 1 our. Friday, as discussed on Thursday night, saw some bounces, and the market closed mixed and slightly lower.
For the week, the Dow was down 357.52 points; SPX fell 48.2 points; Nasdaq dropped 106.25 points. Gold fell sharply, closing around $1720/ounce. Oil slid back to below $98/barrel. At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly lower. Let's see how the US market looked after Friday's close:
SPX
On Friday, SPX slid 0.48 points to close at 1215.65. Its daily MAs and MACD went down.
Nasdaq
Nasdaq fell 15.49 points to close at 2572.5. Its 10-day MA and MACD curved lower.
Both SPX and Nasdaq fell below their respectively daily MAs. VIX came down from Thursday's high of nearly 36.5, but, still closed at 32. For the new week, the market starts in a very vulnerable position. Immediate support for SPX is at 1200, but we could see 1180 tested on a quick, sharp fall. Not only will the market be worrying over Europe, the US Congress may create even more pull on the downside as it tries to reach a deal for the budget. Financials once again look weak. Oil has had an impressive run, but, is starting to appear toppy.
Sector Watch
USO (oil)
USO pierced above the resistance at $38 earlier in the week, only to fall back down to close the week below that mark. It came to rest right at the 10-day MA. It is showing signs of fatigue. This recent run from early October could be oil's rally before it goes below $50/barrel.
MOO (agriculture)
MOO was spooked on Thursday, leading the major sectors lower. Its 10-day MA has already turned lower and went below the 20-day MA. We could see this sector fall further. CF seems to fall the fastest. AGU, POT, MOS are all very weak.
XLF (financials)
After a very weak showing last week, XLF has once again turned bearish. The 10- and 20-day MAs have curved down. XLF could now start to ride the lower BB down. If big funds need to raise cash, the credit card stocks (MA, V) have held up rather well among the financials. GS close to testing $90 again, which is not an encouraging sign for this sector.
GLD (gold)
GLD pulled back, but, still closed above its 30-day MA and its bullish formation is intact. It is still range-bound. It'll have to push above $175 to go higher, which it has not been able to do in the past 2 weeks. Gold miners, on the other hand, have turned bearish with the broader market.
Good night and HappyTrading! ™
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