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Market Forecast + Sector Watch: SPX, Nasdaq, GLD, USO, XME, OIH     

Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I wrote:

"For the new week, things may be a bit tricky.  First of all, it's options expiration week, so some "maneuvers" are to be expected.  The market is definitely trying to draw a bottom.  But, after charging higher 2 days in a row, we may see some indecisiveness on Monday.  If the market can hold its altitude on Monday, the market may test SPX 1100 to 1120 area."

Things happened pretty much as forecasted, again.  Monday was indeed a "tricky" day.  The market was strong in the morning, but, turned negative in the afternoon.  But, the market did hold its altitude, down only fractionally.  On Tuesday, the market jumped and rallied all the way to close at day high.  We locked in some good intraday profits on GOOG calls.  On Wednesday, the market churned, but, came close to that 1120 level.  On Thursday, the market was slightly weak in the morning on profit-taking; it turned up in the last 30 minutes to close in the green.  Bagger Vance scored some superb trades!  Market stayed strong on Friday and finished a solid week, as we locked in some nice gains for the week as well.

For the week, the Dow was up +239.57 points; SPX added +25.91 points; Nasdaq gained +66.2 points.  Both oil and gold went higher, with oil touching $78/barrel and gold closing above $1250/ounce, a new all-time high!  At the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly higher.  Let's see how the US market looks after Friday's close:

SPX

On Friday, SPX added +1.47 points to close at 1117.51, just under the 1120 level.  Its 10-day MA has risen above the 20-day MA.  MACD went higher.

Nasdaq

Nasdaq gained +2.64 points to close at 2309.80, above the 2300 level.  Its 10-day and 20-day MAs have turned up.

Both SPX and Nasdaq closed above their respective daily MAs.  VIX dropped below 24.  For the new week, the market looks to be on its way to break higher.  The daily upper BBs have opened up; the 10-day MAs are crossing above the 20-day MAs.  In addition, the 30-day MAs are trying to turn up.  These are all bullish signals.  This weekend, China announced its intention to loosen yuan's peg to the US dollar.  A higher yuan would make Chinese exports more expensive and help manufacturers of other countries, including the US.  Asian markets are responding well to this news tonight as this could help the global economy.  This should help the commodity sectors. 

Sector Watch

GLD (gold)

GLD closed above the $122 level last week.  Technically speaking, GLD has broken out and has caught the daily upper BB.  Its 20-day MA turned up, above the 30-day MA again, starting a new bullish formation.  GLD should push higher from here.  We could see $1300 gold soon.  Among the gold miners, GOLD and NEM have broken out to new 52-week highs.  PAAS, a silver miner, also had a strong week.

USO (oil)

USO closed above its daily MAs last week.  Its 10-day and 20-day MAs have turned up.  Above $36 could see a breakout and a new bullish formation.

XME (metals and mining)

XME also closed above its daily MAs.  It test the resistance at $52.  Coals are starting to see more buyers.  CLF, WLT, BTU all held their grounds, even after some strong bounces.  BHP also did really well.

OIH (oil services)

OIH closed right at the $105 resistance.  It did manage to close above its daily MAs.  Its 10-day and 20-day MAs have also turned up.  Individually, SLB, DO, and RIG have been trying to climb.  RIG was especially strong on Thursday and Friday.  This sector has been the weakest link recently.  If this sector gains strength, the market should get even stronger!

As it has been the case, if the broader market runs higher, techs should be strong as well.

Good night and HappyTrading! ™ (click to see our Facebook Page)


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