Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I wrote:
"For the new week, we should see strength in the market early in the week. Friday's jobs report actually paints a very good scenario for the stock market. While jobs were added, the unemployment rate was left unchanged. This should help to keep a lid on the dollar while boosting investor's convidence in the economic recovery. Commodities were strong last week, and this week, we'll need to see financials and techs do their share of the lifting. SPX is now comfortably above 1170 and is very close to its daily upper BB. SPX needs to break above 1180 to catch the daily upper BB and ride higher. On the other hand, techs saw profit-taking on Friday and barely above the 2400 level. We'll need to see some strength in tech stocks to push Nasdaq above 2425, which seems to be the next resistance. If techs and financials can rally this week, we should see SPX close above 1180."
Things pretty much happened as forecasted. Indeed, the market came out the gate strongly, rallying higher on Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday saw some profit-taking, but, the market was able to bounce back on Thursday afternoon. On Friday, the market pushed to new heights in the last hour closing SPX above 1190 and Nasdaq above 2450! Both financials and techs took the lead, while commodity sectors rested.
We did not make too many trades this week as the market jumped fast on Monday and saw a quick pullback on Wednesday. Here are the closed trades:
April 08, 2010
12:41 | HappyTrading WLT ($95.40) Sold to Close 04P95 Apr 95 put, at $2.25 -24%
09:14 | HappyTrading AMZN ($140.15) Sold to Close 04C135 Apr 135 calls, at $6.40 +8%
07:25 | HappyTrading POT ($112.75) Sold to Close 04P115 Apr 115 calls, at $3.95 +10%
April 06, 2010
08:56 | HappyTrading CLF ($74.75) Sold to Close 04C75 Apr 75 calls, at $2.40 -20%
06:56 | HappyTrading CME ($313.00) Sold to Close 04C320 Apr 320 calls, at $3.00 -54%
April 05, 2010
12:15 | HappyTrading WYNN ($82.10) Sold to Close 04C75 Apr 75 calls, at $7.50 +50%
09:58 | HappyTrading FFIV ($65.67) Sold to Close 04C60 Apr 60 calls, at $5.90 +51%
07:50 | HappyTrading WYNN ($80.95) Sold to Close 04C75 Apr 75 calls, at $6.50 +30%
For the week, the Dow was up +70.23 points; SPX added +16.27 points; Nasdaq gained +51.47 points. Oil finished the week flat, but, gold pushed above $1160/ounce! This eveing, at the time of this writing, Asian markets were mostly higher. The big news tonight is that eurozone governments agreed to make a euro30 billion loan available to Greece. We'll discussed potential trades off of this new development, which should affect the dollar/gold/oil trio, in the Sector Watch section of this article. Let's see how the US market indices look after Friday's close:
SPX
On Friday, SPX added +7.93 points to close at 1194.37, above the 1190 level. Its daily MAs and AMCD turned back up!
Nasdaq
Nasdaq gained +17.24 points to close at 2454.05. Its daily MAs and MACD also went higher.
Both SPX and Nasdaq have pushed to new heights and are riding up on their daily upper BBs. VIX continues to slide lower and is barely above 16. For the new week, the help that eurozone governments have committed to Greece should inspire the market to a strong start. We could easily see SPX 1200 tested. Nasdaq can rise to test 2480. We'll also see the beginning of the earnings season, with AA reporting after the close on Monday. Tuesday after market, we'll hear from INTC. JPM delivers on Wednesday morning. Thursday afternoon, GOOG will announce its quarterly results. Finally, on Friday morning, BAC shows its report card. In addition, it is options expiration week for April. So, its going to be a busy week. The market will need to see some strong quarterly results to keep its altitude.
Sector Watch
UUP (dollar)
UUP fell last week, again. This evening, eurozone governments agreed to make a euro30 billion loan available to Greece. This should further prompt the bounce on the euro against the dollar. UUP is already showing a bearish turnover in its MACD. Falling below $23.6 would turn UUP bearish!
GLD (gold)
GLD has been rising fast, 8 consecutive sessions and counting! Its daily MAs are now pointing up and we still have not seen a new bullish formation established yet. GLD is riding higher on its daily upper BB. Back in November '09, GLD rallied for a whole month. I think it should at least test $120 again. GOLD has been the gold mining stock with the most momentum. ABX, NEM, AEM all look strong. PAAS, a silver miner, has also been running up fast.
USO (oil)
USO finished basically flat. But, managed to stay above $41, which looks to have turned into a support level. With the dollar falling, we could see USO resume its climb. This would make oil services stocks interesting again. DO and RIG saw some pressure last week. SLB held up well. Oil and gas stocks should strengthen. XOM and CVX broke out last week. APA, HES, UPL, and OXY took a rest, but, should go up again.
XLF (financials)
XLF continued to push higher last week, riding up along its daily upper BB. There are two major earnings reports in this sector. JPM is reporting on Wednesday morning and BAC delivers on Friday morning. While most stocks in the financial sector have been on a continuous run for the past 6 weeks, GS and MS lagged. GS and MS finally pushed above their respective March highs last week. GS has soft resistance at $185 and MS could test $32. We shall see if they can continue to breakout and help push XLF higher. The next resistance for XLF is $18. JPM and BAC together account for almost 23% of XLF. WFC weighs more than 10%. Adding GS and MS, the top five holdings take up more than 40% of XLF!
Good night and HappyTrading! ™ 
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