Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I wrote:
"For the new week, with SPX already at its daily upper BB, the market looks to be ready to push higher. But, since we've had 3 consecutive strong days already, Monday may be a bit choppy, as the market may need to let off some steam; and, there may be some "left-over" expiration manipulation going on. SPX's immediate resistance is at 1050; but, depending on how fast things run, we could see SPX test 1100! Nasdaq could see 2100 if the semiconductors rally along. Again, the commodity sectors will be most important for the broader market to rally up substantially. The financials also look very strong, which we'll look at in the Sector Watch."
Indeed, Monday was a choppy day. It was strong in the morning, but, ended the day lower! Financials stayed strong for the week, especially on Thursday and Friday, as AIG jumped over +40%. Commodity sectors did not participate and stayed mostly flat, which held the broader market back from rally further. However, the market did eke out a small gain for the week: the Dow was up +38.24 points; SPX added +2.8 points; Nasdaq gained +7.87 points.
At the time of this writing, Asian markets were lower. Nikkei surged at open, in the wake of a historic win by the DPJ in Japan's national election, but it quickly turned lower. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index sank lower at the open. Let's see where SPX and Nasdaq stand after Friday's close:
SPX
On Friday, SPX slid 2.05 points to close at 1028.93. Its daily MAs went up, but, the MACD stayed flat.
Nasdaq
Nasdaq added +1.04 points to close at 2028.77. Its 10-day MA barely climbed above the 20-day MA. The MACD was flat.
After breaking above the recent trading range a week ago, the market was not immediately able to continue higher. Both SPX and Nasdaq basically traded flat, within a tight range, last week. However, SPX has started a new bullish formation and Nasdaq just saw its 10-day MA creeping above the 20-day MA on Friday. Both MACDs remained flat. For the new week, although the market indices are showing a bullish formation, not being able to push higher after going above the recent trading range throws a shadow on the market's recent rally. SPX's immediate support is at 1015, and for Nasdaq, it is at about 2000. To push higher, the market needs to drive the major market indices back up to the daily upper BB early in the week. Commodity sectors remain the key for this market. Techs are looking strong after good news from BRCM and INTC last Friday.
Sector Watch
XLF (finance)
XLF was able to push higher last week, closing just below $15. AIG helped push the insurers higher, which in turn, helped the rest of the sector. For the new week, we'll need to see some of the "better" banks rally in order to push the financials higher. XLF's daily MAs are still strong. GS, BAC, WFC, and JPM are the key candidates to watch.
XME (metals and mining)
XME took a quick dip in mid-week, but, was able to rise above its daily MAs on Friday. $43 is still the resistance to break. FCX and X remain strong. But, the coals will be the ones to inspire this sector.
XLE (energy)
XLE jumped on Monday and was able to stay above its daily MAs for the week. Its daily MAs are demonstrating a new bullish formation. $53 is the immediate resistance. This sector is still looking strong. We'll keep monitoring how the dollar and oil moves. CVX and XOM count for more than 30% of XLE. So, we'll keep an eye on the two.
SOXX (semiconducotrs)
SOXX experienced a big jump last friday with good news coming from BRCM, INTC, and MRVL. It has caught up with its daily upper BB again. Its daily MAs turned higher, and, the MACD is showing a new bullish crossover. These are bullish signs. I like BRCM and XLNX.
Even though the charts are still more on the bullish side, we'll have to be careful on Monday, especially with Asian markets showing weakness to start their week.
Good night and HappyTrading! ™
