Last weekend, in my Market Forecast, I said,
"With both SPX and Nasdaq closing above their respective soft resistances, the market looks like it has just started a new leg up! Financials look especially strong after WFC's good news on Thursday. GS will report on Tuesday morning, which should be a big market mover. We also have INTC's report on Tuesday afternoon. These 2 reports could set the tone for the week. The market may be a bit hesitant on Monday after the powerful run-up last week."
Indeed, the market pushed higher last week, extending its weekly winning streak to number 6! On Monday, market was hesitant as predicted with SPX and Nasdaq flat and the Dow slightly in the red. We cashed out solid gains on some of our positions. On Tuesday, the market slid lower on more profit-taking. On Wednesday, the market seemed to be ready to charge higher, led by the REITs (real estate stocks). The techs pushed the market higher on Thursday anticipating a strong report from GOOG. GOOG did deliver a solid report, but, the after-hours trading appeared to be affected by options expiration manuevers. On Friday, the market was volatile, but, we successfully picked some nice winners and finished off the week with nice gains.
For the week, the Dow was up just +47.95 points; SPX added +36.26 points; Nasdaq gained +20.53 points. SPX finally pushed above 850 and Nasdaq is getting close to 1700! Let's see how the market looks after Friday's close:
SPX
SPX added +4.3 points to close at 869.6. Its daily MAs and MACD continued higher.
Nasdaq
Nasdaq gained +2.63 points to close at 1673.07. Its daily MAs went up. The MACD was flat.
After 6 weeks of straight gains, both SPX and Nasdaq still look strong. SKF (financial ultrashort) closed below 60 and SRS (real estate ultrashort) went under 30! VIX closed just below 34, which is a key support and a 6-month low! Asian markets are mixed at the time of this writing. Hang Seng, though, looks very strong! For the new week, the market could be testing some key resistances, SPX 900 and Nasdaq 1700. Notice that the MACD on SPX and Nasdaq have risen from the March low and are flattening out. If the daily MACD starts to turn higher again, it will be a very good signal for the market to go higher. To achieve that, the market will need some strong upward moves early in the week. If VIX breaks the support at 34, the market should rise higher. Some tech stocks are getting toppy, but, the financials are still looking strong. Energy stocks have been lagging, but, some sectors are shaping up for possible breakouts!
Sector Watch
XLF (financials)
XLF closed above $11 last week. The daily MAs and MACD sailed higher. $13 is still some distance away. The financials still look strong!
XLE (energy)
XLE barely eked out a gain last week. But, its 10-day MAs rose above the 20-day MA, establishing a new "bullish" formation! The MACD also went up. There are some mixed signals from its components. OXY and APA look solid, but, XOM and HES appear weak.
OIH (oil services)
OIH went higher all 5 days last week on solid volumes. It caught up with its daily upper BB and is pushing it higher! Oil services could be looking to break out. DO, SLV, and RIG all look very strong.
GLD (gold)
GLD sank lower last week, breaking below the support at $86. GLD is in danger of further breakdowns. Its daily MAs have just established a new "bearish" formation. $84 is a soft support.
Hope you've had a fun and restful weekend!
Good night and HappyTrading! ™
