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Weekend News Flow and Market Research.     

Aug 23 2008, 10:56 AM  by  OptionDragon 

This is what the Optiondragon is reading for this weekend, filtering news for you.  Please feel free to post your links and research here or in the trading room! Here are some funny clips for your weekend laugh!

 Usain Bolt Celebrates Early ... Very Early!  Hilarious clip about Bolt from the Olympics!

 

Hilarious Fantasy Football Rap!!   For All you Fantasy Studs!

Jesus Coaching Fantasy Football?  Hilarious!


Comments

 | August 23, 2008 11:26 AM


Pingback from Wang’s Happy Trading » Weekend News Flow and Market Research.

 | August 23, 2008 11:27 AM


Pingback from Wang’s Happy Trading » Weekend News Flow and Market Research.

 | August 23, 2008 12:16 PM


Goldman, Merrill Lose in Bank Rally Since July 15: Chart of Day



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=arzzfmMTCEdE&refer=home

 | August 23, 2008 12:17 PM


Worst Time to Sell Funds Since '02 Hurts Lehman Plans (Update2)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a8hPm01tsu0U&refer=home

 | August 23, 2008 12:18 PM


Jim Rogers Says Oil Price Rise to Continue for Decade (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=acriLlCR3gbw&refer=home

 | August 23, 2008 12:18 PM


KDB, Weighing Lehman Investment, Sees `Opportunity' (Update1)


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoNbj6L5bMLE&refer=home

 | August 23, 2008 12:59 PM


Dollar Posts First Decline in Six Weeks as Oil Prices Rise

By Ye Xie and Cordell Eddings

Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar posted its first drop against the euro in six weeks as oil rose and traders speculated that the U.S. currency's 8 percent rally since mid-July will be too fast to be sustained.

``We are going to see more dollar weakness going into next week,'' said Mike Moran, a senior currency strategist at Standard Chartered in New York. ``The market is overly long on dollars.'' A long position is a bet a currency will advance.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXnuPlVT0MyE&refer=home

 | August 23, 2008 1:14 PM


Apple Surge Expected - RBC
by: FP Trading Desk posted on: August 21, 2008 | about stocks: AAPL Font Size: PrintEmail "Massive" back-to-school Mac computers sales for Apple Inc. (AAPL) might not mean much to the market on the surface, but when each 25 basis point increase in market share produces an extra US$1-billion in revenue, things start to come into focus pretty quickly.

The strong forecasted sales could drive upside in the company’s fourth quarter, according to Mike Abramsky at RBC Capital Markets. The analyst told clients that data from 4,400 corporate IT buyers and adopters suggest “unprecedented intentions” in the quarter. In the next 90 days, 34% plan to buy a Mac laptop and 30% expect to purchase a desktop.

As a result, he expects Apple’s share of the global PC market will rise to 4.2% in calendar 2009, up from 2.9% in 2007. In addition to the revenue gains this will produce, the analyst said each 25 basis point increase equates to US15¢ in earnings per share.

One reason for the surge in demand is the halo effect produced by the iPhone. RBC said 17% of respondents were more likely to buy a Mac after the iPhone 3G launch. Mr. Abramsky also said there is a 70% chance Apple releases a prepaid iPod/phone and/or iPhone as soon as the fourth quarter, which might push global momentum higher.

He reiterated his “outperform” rating and US$200 price target for Apple shares.

 | August 23, 2008 1:27 PM


The ECB Must Stop Propping Up European Banks
by: Edward Harrison posted on: August 22, 2008 | about stocks: DB / HBOOY.PK / ING / RBS Font Size: PrintEmail A year into the global banking crisis, it's time to let banks start to fend for themselves -- or at least let their shareholders do the heavy lifting. That's what the President of the Dutch Central Bank Nout Wellink had to say earlier today. Below is my translation of an article from the Financieele Dagblad, a Dutch financial newspaper, which interviewed Wellink, a member of the ECB's governing council.

Wellink suggests that the ECB use Walter Bagehot's model for a lender of last resort: lending freely at a penalty rate but limiting the overall liquidity to the banking sector as a whole. If Wellink's views are shared by other ECB governing council members, we may need to get ready for some serious liquidity strains for weaker banks going forward. The Bank of Canada has already stepped away from its role in providing liquidity. Will the ECB be next? And what will this mean if a European bank runs into trouble?


Dutch National Bank Concerned About Bank's Injections
August 21, 2008, 8:00 pm | FD.nl
Prisco Battes and Ahrend Clahsen
Article originally appeared in Dutch

The European Central Bank cannot continue forever to provide liquidity to banks with money market problems. So says Nout Wellink, President of the Bank of the Netherlands and board member of the ECB, in an interview with this newspaper.

"If we see that banks have become very dependent on central banks, then we must encourage them to tap other sources of funding." This means that shareholders, in extreme cases, must come up with money.

Ever since the credit crisis erupted a year ago, central banks have pumped tens of billions into the market to avoid a systemic crisis. "There has been an adequate response," Wellink said. "But there must be a limit to how long you can do this. There comes a point when the market takes over. "

Less liquidity

Earlier this week, the British central bank announced it was to make less liquidity available. During the crisis, the Bank of England has had a special window where banks could finance mortgages. That window will be closed in October.

The measure comes at a time when some banks are still heavily dependent on the central banks for their financing. Because of mutual distrust, the money market where banks lend money to each is very slippery. The rates for uncollateralised loans are extremely high. Some banks cannot borrow at all without collateral.

Rescue package

In the Netherlands, NIBC bank in The Hague has been especially heavily affected by the crisis. But, even Rabobank, with its triple-A status, has an emergency package of mortgages ready in order to borrow in Frankfurt.

According to Wellink, Central banks cannot continue to support commercial banks forever, because the economy cannot recover without a healthy banking sector. "Banks are weakened," said Wellink. "They should strengthen their own backstops because of their central position in the economy." According to the bank president, there is growing evidence that the crisis has not ended. "It may take some time before the economy is back on track."

Restrict money supply

Wellink says not to fear banks failing as a result of restricting liquidity. "We will not let this happen." The ECB cannot turn away banks that offer the right collateral if they come knocking out of liquidity concerns. However, the ECB can auction off the amount of money allocated to the sector as a whole in order to limit the supply. Moreover, the interest rates in those auctions will be fixed, will be increased.

In that way, banks are addressed directly. "If a bank lends excessively, central banks and regulators will see that," Wellink said. "Then, of course, can follow a conversation can follow."

Transparency

Wellink would not say whether he recommends Dutch banks get money from shareholders as soon as possible before the rest of the industry does. But he says that shocks to investors can be avoided if [banks] display openness as soon as possible. "If what will happen is transparent, then the shareholders will understand."


Source
DNB bezorgd over injecties banken, Financieele Dagblad

http://seekingalpha.com/article/92161-the-ecb-must-stop-propping-up-european-banks

 | August 23, 2008 1:34 PM


Ron Insana's Hedge Fund Closure a Cautionary Tale
Posted Aug 22, 2008 12:09pm EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Newsmakers
Related: ^GSPC
Hedge funds used to be seen as a license to print money, but 2008 is shaping up to be the year the bubble burst. Earlier this month, former CNBC anchor Ron Insana folded Insana Capital Partners, the hedge fund he launched in 2006, while superstar investor Dan Benton announced that he's shuttering his $2 billion hedge fund Andor Capital Management in October.

Our guest, New York Times M&A reporter Andrew Ross Sorkin, detailed Insana's travails on his DealBook blog, and goes into the finer points of the rash of hedge fund failures in the accompanying video.


http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/49567/Ron-Insana's-Hedge-Fund-Closure-a-Cautionary-Tale?tickers=%5EGSPC

 | August 23, 2008 1:35 PM


Crackdown on Wall Street: Rumor-Mongers Put on Notice
Posted Aug 22, 2008 07:30am EDT by Henry Blodget in Investing, Recession, Banking
Related: leh, ^DJI, ^ixic
When are rumors more than just idle gossip? When they cause the collapse of one of the world's oldest and largest investment banks, of course.

In the accompanying video, our guest Andrew Ross Sorkin, New York Times M&A reporter and DealBook editor, weighs in on the SEC's ongoing probe into whether hedge funds spread false rumors about Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers in order to cash in. Sorkin acknowledges that such rumor-mongering on the part of short-sellers occurs, but is skeptical as to whether it's what brought about Bear's demise.

He emphasizes that chatter is inevitable on Wall Street, and that nefarious intent is what matters in these cases. Third Point LLC founder Dan Loeb made the same point in his second-quarter letter to investors, albeit with more at stake: His firm is among the hedge funds under investigation

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/49475/Crackdown-on-Wall-Street-Rumor-Mongers-Put-on-Notice?tickers=leh,%5EDJI,%5Eixic

 | August 23, 2008 1:47 PM


Nice article from Dlbnext!

August 23, 2008
Gold and the Dollar - Rationship and Current Trades


Gold and the dollar historically have an inverse relationship to each other. The following charts show that this inverse relationship holds up over many different time frames. Basically if one goes up in price the other goes down and visa versa. So were are we today? Well the daily charts of each show that they are at possible turning points. Further the dollar has just turned down from a very unusual overbought RSI condition and daily volume is also falling off. In addition, interest rates are not likely to raise until some time after the elections so the dollar's value will not have the positive input of a Fed rate increase.

In conclusion, charts are showing conditions favorable to an weakening of the dollar and a increase in gold prices in the coming month and therefore keeps long gold and short the dollar on the watch list from here through November.

Recommendations for trading: GDX, AEM, DGP, GLD, SLV

Long Term charts comparing Gold and the Dollar http://www.screencast.com/users/dlbnext/folders/Jing/media/95a95d1d-bc21-496a-93c0-458541979495

Past 12 months comparing Gold and the Dollar http://www.screencast.com/users/dlbnext/folders/Jing/media/d284a334-eca8-464c-baa7-33b7c398696f

Past 5 days comparing Gold and the Dollar http://www.screencast.com/users/dlbnext/folders/Jing/media/b76b8500-fdba-4570-b838-b1f0a9527c9f

Long term Dollar chart http://www.screencast.com/users/dlbnext/folders/Jing/media/452dbfa7-8496-4afe-8516-8c7a6a914618

Current Dollar chart http://www.screencast.com/users/dlbnext/folders/Jing/media/77141df8-534e-4b1c-bac8-ece6e355d721

Current Gold chart http://www.screencast.com/users/dlbnext/folders/Jing/media/f9a6f200-bcff-45d4-8ea7-6d66a9b8ab68



 | August 24, 2008 12:22 PM


Cover Story: Dueling tax plans from Obama and McCain-Barron's
John McCain's and Barack Obama's tax plans hold vastly different implications for the U.S. economy. Interviews with dozens of money managers, economists and industry analysts over the past few months indicate that, while most would be more comfortable with the Republican candidate, the vast majority don't think that either man would affect the economy much differently than the other. McCain and Obama have dueling visions of what shape the economy, and particularly the nation's tax structure, should take. Obama's stated belief is that the best way to revitalize America is by raising taxes on the rich and redistributing wealth to the poor and middle class. McCain, in contrast, would retain all of President Bush's tax cuts, including those for the wealthy, and cut corporate taxes markedly, with the aim of boosting investment in businesses and creating jobs. Whichever concept prevails will have profound implications for the economy over the next decade. And, if Obama's plan prevails, it could well be for the worse, says Barron's. While both candidates' proposals have their pros and cons, Obama's appears to have a few too many cons. So far, Wall Street has reacted to Obama with relative warmth. He's attracted such advisers as Warren Buffett and former Fed chief Paul Volcker. And many seasoned observers maintain that the Democrat's economic policies are quite similar to those of his Republican rival. McCain's tax plan is more growth-oriented than Obama's because it punishes no one group and, by lowering corporate tax rates, makes U.S. businesses more attractive to American and foreign investors. Nevertheless, plenty of Wall Streeters see no threat to the economy from Obama.

 | August 24, 2008 12:23 PM


Technology Trader: Recapping a cautious Garmin initiation- Barron's
Columnist Tiernan Ray recaps a Avanondale Partners note from Friday, where the firm initiated coverage of Garmin (GRMN) with a Market Perform rating and a target of $38. The analyst John Bright, says Garmin may get a little lost as the company's in-car navigation devices try to stave off the advances of smartphones. Bright concludes that the company "faces the risk of competition from the auto OEM market, where it has limited participation, and the smartphone market, where it sells software for some models, but no devices of its own." Also he notes, Garmin on July 30 said that it would delay introduction of its GPS-oriented smartphone, the Nuvifone, from Q3 of this year to 1H09. Bright is skeptical about this effort, as Garmin aspires to participate in a highly competitive marketplace in which it has no prior experience. He says, it faces the risk of cannibalizing its existing portable navigation device sales.

 | August 24, 2008 12:23 PM


Important news clue here.....


JDSU-JDSU: Sheds some light on the health of credit-card lending- Barron's
Technology Trader columnist Tiernan Ray says, there's a gem of a data point in the fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report of JDS Uniphase (JDSU), released Wednesday evening. Part of the company's business, its advanced optical-technologies division, makes coatings used on credit cards. That business, which kicks in 13% of sales, was down about 5% in the quarter, contributing to the company's missing Wall Street sales and profit estimates. As management told the story, optical-coating sales fell because one of its customers, which happens to be among the three largest credit-card issuers, substantially reduced its issuance of new cards in the June quarter. This is yet another meaningful indicator that credit-card companies are pulling in their horns, lending less.

 | August 24, 2008 12:24 PM


Fundamentals still apply, judging by HPQ's gain and CRM's slide- Barron's
Technology Trader columnist Tiernan Ray compared the contrasting stocks performances after reported earnings from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), who beat estimates and saw its shares rise by more than 5%; and Salesforce.com (CRM), who's shares fell 18% the same night, as the company's rate of new orders failed to satisfy. Ray says, the contrasting fortunes provided a good example of why it's dangerous to bet on a view about the economy, rather than to focus on stock prices. Salesforce, despite rapid growth, trades at 29.5x the free cash flow per share it may generate this year. That's almost three times HP's modest multiple. It's clear that Salesforce was trading like it could do nothing wrong, and HP was priced as if it had nothing left to offer. Ray says, no matter how recession-resistant, a stock with a sky-high multiple may not support even very good results, while shares with humbler valuations will cheer up on even modestly strong numbers. As of Friday, Salesforce was rebounding, rising 5%, while HP rose a modest 1.3%. Although HP has proven that it can beat modest concerns, Salesforce still has a formidable task to meet such lofty expectations

 | August 24, 2008 12:26 PM


Wien: U.S. & Europe are unlikely to grow in excess of 3% in next 5yrs-Barron's
Barron's interviewed Byron R. Wien, Chief Investment Strategist at Pequot Capital Management, a hedge-fund outfit with $5.5B under management. Wien says the market may be slow in coming back. Wein was more worried about inflation at the beginning of the year than he is now, as maybe the slowdown around the world is going to take pressure off inflation. Wien says we are in a recession, but there are two parts of it that you haven't seen yet. an increase in unemployment, and a collapse in consumer credit. Wien says we are not going to come out of the recession until sometime next year at the earliest. He believes oil will stay in the $100 to $115 range, but longer-term oil prices are headed higher because China and India are consuming. Commodities are going to be rising in price as the the demand for agricultural commodities is going to be intense in China and India. Wien expects the market will end the year higher than today, though maybe not a lot higher. He says, earnings have already been very disappointing and that will continue. Wien believes financials are going to shrink as an important part of the S&P 500, and that two areas that have potential to expand are technology and health care. The inventory of unsold homes in the housing market is still very high. Prices are still declining. Wien doesn't think it's over yet, and that we have further pain to go. Wien sees opportunity in pharmaceuticals, selected biotech companies, oil-and-gas exploration, including natural gas, and in Brazil. He is also positive on coal and agriculture. Wein declined to name specific stocks, but would recommend the Pharmaceutical HOLDRS Trust (PPH) and the ETF he likes is iShares Dow Jones US Technology (IYW), which includes a lot of technology companies. Wien is particularly bullish on natural gas and feels that coal stocks will represent good value. Wien is worried that Japan is in the mature-economy area along with the U.S. and Europe. He is positive on Brazil, and that China and India have corrected and are now becoming attractive. Wein is not particularly bullish on the bond market. From these levels, Wein thinks equities will outperform bonds, and alternative investments, such as hedge funds, will outperform traditional long-only investments. Wien's outlook for rest of 2008 and into 2009: he is worried that the problems in the financial system are deeper than people think, that the recession turns out to be worse than expected, and that the recovery turns out to be disappointing.

 | August 24, 2008 12:26 PM


James River Coal-JRCC: SAC Capital bought 770,000 shares - Barron's Online
During a recent pullback, following disappointing earnings SAC Captial Advisors bought 775,941 shares, or a 3% stake in James River Coal (JRCC). That is up from only 7,800 shares SAC reported owning at the end of Q2. SAC filed as a passive shareholder and listed August 12 as the date that it reached the ownership threshold that triggered the filing. Brent Slava for StreetInsider.com says, "SAC is a good fund, so it's positive to see them buying in," "that SAC has been following James River Coal for some time." Slava says. "They may be reloading, getting ready for another jump in commodities." Slava notes that SAC is not the only fund buying into James River Coal. Analysts remain positive on James River Coal's prospects. Those polled by Thomson Financial on average rated the company at Buy or the equivalent, with a 12-month target price of $63.83

 | August 24, 2008 12:28 PM


Apple expects to sell 3.5M iPhones in Russia-The Economic Times
Sources familiar with the new Russian carrier deals expect Apple (AAPL) to sell 3.5M iPhones in Russia in the next two years. Two carriers have signed official framework deals with Apple and another deal is expected next week according to sources

 | August 24, 2008 12:28 PM


Investors concerned about Lehman's stakes in hedge funds-FT
According to the Financial Times, private equity firms interested in buying Lehman Brothers' (LEH) asset management business have expressed concerns about the firm's stakes in several hedge funds. Lehman has minority stakes in hedge funds such as DE Shaw, GLG and Ospraie

 | August 24, 2008 12:31 PM


Weekly subtractions from the Investor's Business Daily-100
The following are subtractions from the Investors Business Daily-100 list for the week of August 22 : Ezcorp (EZPW), Bruker (BRKR), Koppers Holdings (KOP), Plexus Corp. (PLXS), Jinpan International (JST), Activision Blizzard (ATVI), Nordson Corp. (NDSN), Gorman-Rupp (GRC), Stanley (SXE), Badger Meter (BMI), Sybase (SY), Synaptics (SYNA), Express Scripts (ESRX), Netflix (NFLX), Kenexa (KNXA), Interwoven (IWOV), Hub Group (HUBG), Itron(ITRI

 | August 24, 2008 12:31 PM


Weekly additions to the Investors Business Daily-100
The following are additions to the Investors Business Daily-100 list for the week of August 22: Titan (TITN), Potash Corp Saskatchewan (POT), Arch Coal (ACI), Massey Energy Company (MEE), Hess Corp. (HES), ITT Educational (ESI), Arena Resources (ARD), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Agrium (AGU), Helmerich & Payne (HP), Mindray Medical (MR), Monsanto (MON), Altra Holding (AIMC ), Colfax Corp (CFX ), Natural Gas Services GRP (NGS), T Three Energy Services (TTES), Tesco Corp (TESO), Alcon Inc (ACL

 | August 24, 2008 12:33 PM


Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Briefing Forecast Market Expects Prior Revised From
Aug 25 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Jul - 4.95M 4.90M 4.86M -
Aug 26 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Aug - 53.0 53.0 51.9 -
Aug 26 10:00 AM New Home Sales Jul - 535K 523K 530K -
Aug 26 2:00 PM FOMC Minutes Aug 5 - - - - -
Aug 27 8:30 AM Durable Orders Jul - 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% -
Aug 27 10:35 AM Crude Inventories 08/23 - NA NA 9390K -
Aug 28 8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Prel. Q2 - 1.1% NA 1.1% -
Aug 28 8:30 AM GDP-Prel. Q2 - 2.8% 2.7% 1.9% -
Aug 28 8:30 AM Initial Claims 08/23 - NA NA 432K -
Aug 29 8:30 AM Personal Income Jul - -0.3% -0.1% 0.1% -
Aug 29 8:30 AM Personal Spending Jul - 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% -
Aug 29 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Aug - 50.5 49.9 50.8 -
Aug 29 10:00 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev. Aug - 63.0 62.3 NA

 | August 24, 2008 1:45 PM


Fuld's days at Lehman rumored to be few-The Observer
A coup is said to be in the works to oust Lehman Brothers' (LEH) chief Richard Fuld. Insiders say that the relatively new COO, Bart McDade, has taken on many of Fuld's former duties.

 | August 24, 2008 2:16 PM


http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINBNG17476520080820?rpc=44

UPDATE 1-RESEARCH ALERT-BofA upgrades ITT Education to buy

 | August 24, 2008 2:53 PM


Bankers fear shakeout as summer comes to end
By Matthew KarnitschnigThe Wall Street Journal Europe
Word Count: 758 | Companies Featured in This Article: Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan Chase, Merrill Lynch, Greenhill, Evercore Partners, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Sovereign Bancorp, Wells Fargo
Labor Day typically marks the end of a late-summer lull on Wall Street. This year, investment bankers are beginning to worry that they will return from the Hamptons to find they have even more time to spend with their families.

Senior bankers warn that after a tough first half, the outlook has deteriorated. Does the grim forecast mean that the long-rumored consolidation in investment banking will finally occur?

It should.

The damage caused by mortgage-backed securities remains the focus for investors. The investment banks might have taken most of the balance-sheet hits from their subprime problems, but other areas, in ...

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